Proposta de um modelo matemático do consumo residêncial de energia: estudo de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso – Brasil

Abstract

At present time, enterprises differ from each other by the knowledge they have of their business which hives them a competitive advantage. Lack of knowledge or false information may mean losses and even entrepreneurial death. In this scenario energy management with true billing of residential energy is one of the determinant factors of the enterprise success. The existence of 15% losses and the competitive need of enterprises justify the proposal to do a research validating the application of a mathematical model to the consumption of residential energy. This model is based on historic series in a six-year period, from 2001 to 2006. To do this, I made an statistic analysis of possible explicative variables and searched for mathematic models using a projection of the residential energy consumption. The results showed the need to insert economic variables, because of the existence of a great socioeconomic gap among the Cuiabá residences, and it also showed fraud possibilities in energy consumption.