Regulación, política agro-energética y la evolución del mercado de carburantes renovables en Brasil
Resumen
Los costes de la dependencia del petróleo, los costes externos medioambientales de los combustibles fósiles, o la promoción del desarrollo agrícola, han justificado una serie de medidas de intervención estatal para expandir el mercado interno de los biocarburantes, en el supuesto de que la intervención del Estado es condición necesaria y suficiente para lograr este objetivo. Después de analizar en perspectiva histórica los elementos políticos y económicos en el sector del etanol de Brasil, en este artículo se argumenta que la expansión o contracción del mercado no debe entenderse como el efecto de unas políticas determinadas por el Estado regulador. En este sentido, sostenemos que las tendencias en el desarrollo del mercado reflejan los efectos de una relación subyacente anterior, que está determinada por la convergencia o divergencia en el tiempo de los costos de oportunidad del gobierno y de la agroindustria. Nuestro análisis muestra que la eficacia de una política de diversificación energética como la promoción de los biocombustibles depende de los beneficios económicos y de las rentas políticas generadas por la expansión del uso de etanol. Estas restricciones se pueden extrapolar como parte del análisis de costo-efectividad de las políticas públicas relacionadas con el sector en otros países.
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